Trump will win again in 2020.
Yep, you heard me right. Before you gasp, I’m not the only one who’s making this claim – the 2012 Presidential Nominee Mitt Romney said it, Joe Rogan said it, Michael Moore said it and so many others. If Trump surprised everyone back in 2016, then you should get used to it, because it’s bound to happen once more.
Back when I was mourning the loss of Hillary Clinton, as it became clear that her pre-purchased celebratory balloons were not going to be released on election night, I never would have thought that I would make this prediction in 2018. But here we are.
Whether President Donald Trump is a combination of racist, sexist, ableist and all the “ist”s there are is debatable. But it is undeniable that he makes a relatively good President…
…through the lens of economics, and an even better campaigner. You don’t have to agree with me on this, but the economic figures do not lie. GDP growth in the second quarter of 2018 rose to 4.1%, the unemployment rate decreased to 3.9%, consumer confidence is at a historically strong level, consumer and business spending is at an all-time high…
While all my lecturers despise Trump for his reckless policies, as an economics student it is difficult for me to give Obama all the credit for the economic growth, after all, Trump has liberated many over-regulated industries in the U.S. by easing regulations and giving them a tax break. I’m not claiming this is fair in any way, nor am I saying I agree with all of his economic policies, but let me say this again, FIGURES DO NOT LIE. There are many reasons for you to hate Donald Trump, but the flourishing economy should not be one of them. Trump does, however, use a lot of game theory when negotiating issues on tariffs or foreign relations with North Korea and Iran. Game of Chicken is one of the most frequently used strategies, and when you are the “head-fucking-hen”, you tend to win that game.
If you are not convinced by the booming economy and unique approach to foreign relations just yet, don’t worry. Another reason Trump will get reelected is that the media is not doing any more damage to him and, let’s be honest, never did. Despite the seemingly constant negative coverage, Trump seems to escape every time with his reputation unscathed. Apart from Trump himself, Trump supporters or even those indecisive ones are constantly being ridiculed and insulted — you are stupid if you don’t hate him. This ongoing phenomenon appeals to an audience base that hates Trump and would love to hear what Trump did wrong on a daily basis, but not to an apolitical person who is just looking for unbiased opinions instead of listening to anti-Trump propaganda on many news networks. Late night hosts are not doing us any favours either – each night they come up with new stories and new attacks against Donald Trump. It was funny in the beginning, I enjoyed watching them make fun of the White House staffers for about a year, then it got old. I’m sure I’m not alone in this, the deeply biased perception from the majority of the left-leaning mainstream media have lost all objectivity when it comes to Trump. Such a divide is driving more audience to right-wing networks, radio shows and it’s sad when people simply stay in their perspective echo chambers every night and listen to what they want to hear.
While Trump and the media are battling it out in public, the Democratic party and its prominent figures are taking a sharp turn to the far left, advocating for socialist-like policies such as free college, increase in minimum wage and Medicare for all. Let’s take Medicare for all as an example, recent far-left talking point revolves around how a push for Medicare for all can actually lead to economic growth but is that true? Well, the study that was cited by Bernie Sanders, Alexandria Ocasio Cortez and other progressives have also stated, which they conveniently left out the fact that “to get that result would require paying hospitals and doctors much less than they get now and risk putting some out of business.” Huh, how about that. At the end of the day, the entirety of California and New York can vote blue, but it will still be up to the good people in swing states such as Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania to decide who lives in the White House.
Historically, rapid shifts to the left or leftist movements have been detrimental to many economies including the Great Leap Forward in China, Maduro’s leftist policies in Venezuela, and the Castro government in Cuba which left its country in economic ruins. With that in mind, the current change in the Democratic party should not be seen as a sign of relief as it has been by many millennials, but rather as a sign of doom. If the Dem nominee in 2020 is going for a populist socialist policy, be sure to witness an influx of Republican and centrists’ turnout in rebellion against such rapid shift.
Overall, I personally believe given the current political climate and economic status in the U.S., Trump will likely get re-elected in 2020. A fundamental shift of strategy is needed by the Democrats in order to win in the next election, but that shift is not drastically further to the left.